It’s probably not discussed as much as home court in basketball and even college football, but NFL teams often have significant home advantages and away responsibilities. A key part of sport is emotion. Even though NFL players are professional athletes who are paid to do a job to the best of their ability, playing well in front of home fans is actually more important than playing well on the road.
There hasn’t been a clearer example this season than the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags started 4-1 SU/ATS at home allowing only 7 points per game! However, on the road they allow 22 points per competition, which explains the 1-3 SU/ATS road mark. In fact, the offense scores 8 more points per game at home.
The local fans are the ones who, in essence, are paying their salaries. No player wants to give 50% and lose a game badly in front of the home crowd. Additionally, other factors can influence a team’s performance at home or away. The Chiefs have big home fans and for years punters have factored in a slightly larger lead for the Chiefs at home over the line. Even with a new coach this year, Herm Edwards, the Chiefs are 2-3 SU/ATS on the road, but 3-1 SU/ATS at home.
The Broncos also enjoy a unique advantage at home, not only from the big fans but also from the thin air in the Colorado mountains. Denver players are used to practicing and playing in the cooler, thinner air, while some opponents are not.
Another factor to consider is the playing surface. Dick Vermeil built the Rams in the late 1990s with an eye for speed at WR and RB. His extended attack, along with then-offensive coordinator Mike Martz, was predicted to have speed that would perform best on the artificial playing surface in the St. Louis dome. In 2004, the Rams were 6-2 SU at home, but 3-7 SU/ATS on the road. This year they score 26 points per game at home (2-1-1 over the total) but one less score away from home (2-3 under). The former Greatest Show on Turf is much less on grass.
Keep in mind that the Buffalo Bills have been a very different team at home than away from home the past two seasons. They were a .500 home team last year, but just 1-6 on the road. This year the same thing is happening, starting 2-2 at home, but 1-4 away. Last season Buffalo started 3-1 SU/ATS at home, but 0-3 SU/ATS on the road. It’s not just QB JP Losman’s struggles, the whole team seems to pack away from home.
Look at the geographic location of a team like the Seahawks, playing in the Northwest corner of the US in Seattle. A team in a city like that has a longer way to go to road games, and they’ve already made a long trip to Detroit. Seattle started 4-1 SU at home with a winning record, but went 0-4 against the number on the road. That was the case a year ago when they had long road trips to Jacksonville, Washington, as well as St. Louis. The Seahawks started 1-2 Su/ATS on the road and 4-0 at home! Seattle’s offense also continues to play better at home. For total bettors, keep in mind that the Seahawks are 14-9 “over” in their last 23 home games total.
The worst road team remains the Lions, who allow 33 points per road game (0-4 SU/ATS), and Oakland (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Raiders are averaging just 7 points per game on the road! They average more than double that number of points at home with their Bed and Breakfast offense, giving fans at least something to celebrate.